Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Sara forms over the Western Caribbean

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None through the weekend.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* Sara is over the Western Caribbean & near the Central American coast.

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

A Tropical Storm WARNING: The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border ... The Bay Islands of Honduras.

“Sara″

‘99-L’ became tropical depression #19 early Thu. & was upgraded to “Sara” early Thu. afternoon over the Western Caribbean. Sara is the 18th named storm of the Atlantic season. The 30-year average for a season is 14. Very heavy rain, flooding, mudslides & gusty winds will impact parts of Nicaragua, Honduras & Guatemala.

Most of the models have come into decent agreement & have trended faster with the tropical cyclone in the longer range possibly near or over Florida or the Gulf Coast by Wed. of next week *but* very slow prior to that near or over Central America. Models have generally trended weaker too - at least for now - once over the Gulf. Where Sara goes exactly & what strength is still to be determined both in the short term & long term due largely to (1) land interaction (Central American & Yucatan Peninsula) & (2) increasing wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico.

The trend in the models has been more west into Central America. Such a track would have major implications on what may then moves north/NW over the Gulf of Mexico, especially when it comes to strength. Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model - 4th image below - has the system ashore over Central America late Sat. The 5th forecast map is for early Wed., Nov. 20th & shows a weak tropical/subtropical disturbance over the Northeast Gulf. The 6th forecast map - for early next Wed. - is the upper level (500mb, 30,000 ft) flow showing a trough of low pressure over the Central U.S. This trough - it’s intensity, timing & depth looks to be a key player in where & how fast Sara - or whatever is left of Sara - tracks.

It’s still early but the bottom line is anyone in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Gulf Coast & Florida needs to stay up to date on the latest forecasts. Exactly how this situation unfolds is still very much up in the air. But indications *at this point* are that Sara will emerge over the Western Gulf in a disorganized/weak state given the long period of land interaction. Shear will be strong too. This combination is pointing to some heavy rain & gusty winds for Florida & parts of the Gulf Coast by the middle of next week but - again - exact details will certainly still be subject to at least some refinement.

7-day precip. forecast:

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “rising” air (green lines) across the Atlantic Basin which equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. An upward “pulse” was centered over the Atlantic Basin which aided Rafael last week & the tail end of this pulse may help the next disturbance over the Caribbean.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Sara” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: