Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tammy goes hurricane with impacts for parts of the Lesser Antilles

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

** Tammy is near the Eastern Caribbean...

** A tropical wave is off the African coast over the far Eastern Atlantic. This wave may try to develop some while moving west/northwest.

** Weak low pressure may develop over the Southwest Caribbean then move inland over Centra America

A tropical wave/low pressure area - ‘94-L’ - was upgraded to tropical storm “Tammy” late Wed. & to a hurricane Fri. morning. Forecast models continue to come into better agreement on Tammy turning sharply northward but not before impacting the Northern Lesser Antilles through Saturday with heavy rain & strong winds. It still looks like the core of Tammy stays east of Puerto Rico resulting in mostly minor impacts for the island. Once past the Leeward Islands will then stay over the open Atlantic turning more northeast with time staying to the south & east of Bermuda through the middle of next week.

Troughing remains prevalent over the Eastern U.S./Western Atlantic which will help protect the U.S. east coast from any direct impacts with Tammy turning sharply to the N/NE. It does look like an easterly swell will reach the east coast for much of next week augmented for the Southeast & Fl. by broad onshore flow.

A Hurricane WARNING: Guadeloupe ... Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis. A Hurricane WATCH: Anguilla ... St. Maarten ... St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. A Tropical Storm WARNING: Dominica ... Anguilla ... St. Maarten ... St. Martin and St. Barthelemy ... Saba and St. Eustatius. A Tropical Storm WATCH: Barbados ... Martinique.

Additional spaghetti plots for Tammy:

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

October tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Vince” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East/Central Pacific:

Hurricane “Norma” is forecast to have impacts on the Baja of California through the weekend then possibly the upper west coast of Mexico while weakening.

A Hurricane WARNING: Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm WARNING: North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo ... North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm WATCH: Las Islas Marias ... Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya